When studying a hadith, it is best to refer to the details recorded about the same incident in other recorded ahadith. This is so to avoid confusions that may arise from apparent wording of that individual hadith and have a clearer understanding on the matter. 


The event of the Thursday also referred to as "hadith of the pen and paper", except that there was no paper in those days, is mentioned in several traditions. In order to understand this event properly we need to read all those traditions as well and then analyze several aspects of the situation. Usually it is only the following tradition or a similar one, that gets quoted individually and discussed and conclusions are drawn:

Narrated Ubaidullah bin Abdullah: Ibn 'Abbas said, "When the ailment of the Holy Prophet became worse, he said, 'Bring for me paper and I will write for you a statement after which you will not go astray.' But Umar said, 'The Holy Prophet is seriously ill, and we have got Allah's Book with us and that is sufficient for us.' But the companions of the Holy Prophet differed about this and there was a hue and cry. On that the Prophet said to them, 'Go away (and leave me alone). It is not right that you should quarrel in front of me." Ibn 'Abbas came out saying, "It was most unfortunate (a great disaster) that Allah's Apostle was prevented from writing that statement for them because of their disagreement and noise." (Sahih Bukhari Hadith 114 - Book of Knowledge - Sunnah.com) - A note from Sunnah.com advises: "It is apparent from this Hadith that Ibn 'Abbas had witnessed the event and came out saying this statement. The truth is not so, for Ibn 'Abbas used to say this statement on narrating the Hadith and he had not witnessed the event personally." See Fath Al-Bari (commentary on Bukhari) Vol. 1, p.220 footnote.[1]
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First thing to mention here is that the apparent words of Ibn Abbas (r.a) suggest to a reader that he himself witnessed this event, and Umar (r.a) deliberately and due to some hidden motive did not obey the Prophet ﷺ. However that is not the case when we notice that Ibn Abbas (r.a) is a narrator of the event and not the witness himself, as also noted in Fath Al Bari the best known commentary on Sahih Al Bukhari, by Imam Hajar Al Asqalani. Since Ibn Abbas (r.a) does not experience the situation first hand we should realize that there could be error in our understanding the situation like most of us do when reading how Umar (r.a) reacted.

Second thing to mention here is that the Prophet ﷺ lived for a couple of days after this incident, therefore if he had to issue a decree that he considered being missed, then he would’ve definitely have done it for he knows the promise of Allah ﷻ as given to him before: [Al Quran 5:67] "O Messenger! deliver what has been revealed to you from your Lord; and if you do it not, then you have not delivered His message, and Allah will protect you from the people; surely Allah will not guide the unbelieving people."

Third thing to note here is that even if we accept that Prophet ﷺ  was prevented from dictating something then did the argument happening stopped him from doing what he wished to? Obviously no. He indeed did dictate what he wanted to and it was 3 things as mentioned in another tradition below:

Narrated Ibn `Abbas: "Thursday! And how great that Thursday was! The ailment of Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) became worse (on Thursday) and he said, fetch me something so that I may write to you something after which you will never go astray." The people (present there) differed in this matter, and it was not right to differ before a prophet. Some said, "What is wrong with him ? (Do you think ) he is delirious (seriously ill)? Ask him (to understand his state)." So they went to the Prophet (ﷺ) and asked him again. The Prophet (ﷺ) said, "Leave me, for my present state is better than what you call me for." Then he ordered them to do three things. He said, "Turn the pagans out of the 'Arabian Peninsula; respect and give gifts to the foreign delegations as you have seen me dealing with them." (Sa`id bin Jubair, the sub-narrator said that Ibn `Abbas kept quiet as rewards the third order, or he said, "I forgot it.") (Sahih al-Bukhari 4431) [2]

One very important thing to note is that the 1st tradition mentioned on top ends with the words from Ibn Abbas (r.a) that "It was most unfortunate (a great disaster) that Allah's Messenger was prevented from writing that statement for them because of their disagreement and noise"… which a reader’s mind concludes that Prophet ﷺ was prevented from writing what he wished to and the matter ended. However when see read the 2nd tradition Ibn Abbas (r.a) added words that "Then he ordered them to do three things. He said, "Turn the pagans out of the 'Arabian Peninsula; respect and give gifts to the foreign delegations as you have seen me dealing with them." Therefore jumping to conclusions can be costly.

Same rules should apply when judging the reaction of Hazrat Umar (r.a). It is a known fact that at the time when the Prophet ﷺ requested for a pen and something to write down some advice, those were his last days and due to sickness he was slipping into a state between consciousness and unconsciousness. Hazrat Umar (r.a) and the companions who objected to the Prophet’s request did not do so because they had a hidden agenda or they decided to disobey him as he was passing away. They did it so that there is no discrepancy left in what was going to be handed over looking at the Prophet’s health. Did they do what was wrong? Yes I believe so and every Muslim should say that they were wrong who objected. But did they intend to disrespect the Prophet ﷺ and had a hidden motive? Most definitely not, for those who gave everything away for Islam, for whose truthfulness Quran also bears witness, how could they do such a thing? In fact they proved their loyalty even after the Prophet ﷺ passed away.

Now the question would be what happened to the 3rd thing?

All the traditions narrated by Ibn Abbas (r.a) inform us that he forgot or he did not mention. By observing all the traditions of this event we notice that nowhere do we find what was the third thing. Since destiny did not reveal for us it is not good that we speculate as such would be harmful for us: (Al Quran 49:12) "O you who believe! avoid most of suspicion, for surely suspicion in some cases is a sin."

It has come down to us in the traditions that Laylat ul Qadr night was also hidden for us when the companions argued. The Prophet ﷺ was going to reveal the date of that night but Allah ﷻ prevented him from doing so and this was a blessing as it allows us to worship every night of the last 10 nights and not one night. Prophet Muhammad ﷺ came to educate the people regarding the Night of Al-Qadr (Decree), but two Muslims were arguing with each other. So, he said: “I came out to inform you about the Night of Al-Qadr, but so-and-so were quarreling, so its knowledge was taken away. Yet, perhaps that is for your own good....”[Al-Bukhari] This teaches us that there is divine wisdom in things hidden from our direct knowledge. 

Moreover Arabic words that Umar (r.a) used to describe Prophet’s deteriorating health has been translated in English differently in different traditions. A careful observation shows that all those translated words are not disrespecting, they just describe Prophet’s unconscious state. A couple of those traditions are mentioned below:

Umar said: "Verily Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) is deeply afflicted with pain." (Sahih Muslim - Book of Wills) Umar said, "The Prophet (ﷺ) is seriously ill." (Sahih Bukhari - Book of holding fast to the Quran and Sunnah) In another tradition The Companions said, "What is wrong with him? Do you think he is delirious? Ask him (to understand)." (Sahih Bukhari - Book of Jizyah). The word that describes the Prophet’s health in arabic word ahajara أَهَجَرَ, translated as "delirious", comes from the same root as hijrah. Hijrah as all Muslims know means to "migrate from one state to another". So it means that Prophet Muhammad ﷺ was being ushered from this world to the next and that what the companions thought. In fact the worst English translation I've read so far of the term ahajara is "lost his mind’.

This is my input about this event and behavior of Umar (r.a) can only be understood once we understand different aspects of this event.

A Note for the Shia Muslims

At this point it is also important to mention that this hadith is often quoted in Shia gatherings as a "proof" to judge Hazrat Umar's intention and indulge in unnecessary speculation that the third thing must have been designation of Ali ibn Abi Talib as the Prophet's successor. Implying that the Prophet's order was not implemented by his closest and most educated companions. As proven from our discussion that we do not have concrete evidence in regards to the third thing. If this is what some Shia Muslims chose to believe then the onus lies on them to prove this claim. If they cannot, then mere suspicion is a sin (Al Quran 49:12). Also what is very interesting to note is that Shias have been boldly claiming that the Prophet ﷺ designated Ali (a.s) as his successor at the event of Ghadir, when he referred to him as "mawla", more or less a month before Prophet's death. If Ali's successorship was already declared at Ghadir, where thousands were gathered, then why would he need to have it written down for a few persons on his death. Hence this claim contradicts the Shia's famous position regarding event of Ghadir.

I hope this writing helps and may Allah ﷻ guide us all.

References:

[1] https://sunnah.com/bukhari/3/56 
[2] https://sunnah.com/bukhari/64/453 

Originally authored on May 10, 2018, on Quora - https://www.quora.com/Didnt-Muhammad-say-only-1-out-of-73-sects-go-to-heaven-and-the-rest-to-hell-What-chances-have-you-got 

Yes indeed he did say that but he also identified the saved group so that Muslims would not be left in confusion as to which group it would be. In order to clarify this apparent confusion we would just need to understand the following 3 traditions that mention this subject of seventy three sects among his followers. After reading everything shared one can understand that the saved group has always been majority among Muslims and the ones that Prophet ﷺ said will enter hell have always been in minority.

The first tradition appears in the collection of Ibn Majah:

It was narrated from ‘Awf bin Malik (r.a) that the Messenger of Allah ﷺ said “The Jews split into seventy-one sects, one of which will be in Paradise and seventy in Hell. The Christians split into seventy-two sects, seventy-one of which will be in Hell and one in Paradise. I swear by the One Whose Hand is the soul of Muhammad, my nation will split into seventy-three sects, one of which will be in Paradise and seventy-two in Hell.” It was said: “O Messenger of Allah, who are they?” He said: “Jama’ah (The main body).” (Sunan Ibn Majah 3992) [1]

The second one is recorded by Imam Tirmidhi in his collection similar to the above except for slight difference in the wording identifying the saved group:

Narrated 'Abdullah bin 'Amr (r.a) that the Messenger of Allah ﷺ said: "All of them are in the Fire Except one sect." He said: "And which is it O Messenger of Allah?" He said: "What I am upon and my Companions." (Jami at-Tirmidhi 2641) [2]

In a third tradition the Prophet ﷺ even identified as to who will be those that will become the cause of divisions in the following words: “…and one of them will go to Paradise, and it is the majority group (jama'ah).” Ibn Yahya and `Amr added in their version : “There will appear among my community people who will be dominated by desires like rabies which penetrates its patient”, Amr’s version has: “penetrates its patient. There remains no vein and no joint but it penetrates it.” (Sunan Abi Dawud 4597) [3]

The wording in the above traditions that distinguish the righteous from the wrong also teaches few but very important points of guidance.

1. The main thing is to know that the figure ‘seventy one’ or ‘seventy two’ or ‘seventy three’ is not to teach us an exact figure, it is to be noted that the term ‘Seventy’ in Arabic also means ‘Several’. Therefore what is being taught is not a figure but a warning of many and several divisions that would take place with time.
2. Secondly the Prophet ﷺ identified the saved group would be the majority in the words "The main body (Jama’ah)"
3. Thirdly he said "what I am upon and my Companions" means the saved ones would be on the path of the Prophet ﷺ and his Companions.
4. Fourthly the groups not part of the saved group will separate from following the teachings of the main body due to which they will become a source of divisions and sectarianism. The trademark of such divisive Imams is that they are influenced more by desires than by righteousness.

This clarifies one major thing for us that those who follow the Prophet’s example, those who follow the way of the Companions who imitated his example and those who followed the Companions in their understanding of Islam are included in the saved group. However this identification will be clarified even further for us if we study the above traditions in the light of other traditions that are related to the same subject.

What does the Prophet ﷺ mean by "Jama'ah or The Main Body"

The main body (Jama’ah) can be observed by the fact that will never be separated from the consensus on religious matters agreed upon from the time of the companions. As the scholars says that to know whether a doctrine or practice is orthodox or heretical, the Muslim is required to find out whether it is recognized by majority or main body of Muslim scholars. This is also corroborated by the fact that the Prophet ﷺ himself clarified that the main body or majority will never agree on an error and will always unite on guidance. Additionally he also claimed that such people of guidance will always prevail over those of misguidance.

Narrated AbuMalik al-Ash'ari, The Prophet ﷺ said: "Allah has protected you from three things: that your Prophet should not invoke a curse on you and should all perish, that those who follow what is false should not prevail over those who follow the truth, and that you should not all agree in an error.” (Sunan Abi Dawud 4253) [4]

What does the Prophet ﷺ mean by "What I am upon and my Companions"

It is a known fact that companions were the first to have learned Islam directly from the Prophet ﷺ and then the rest of the generation up till today have learned guidance from their example and way. The first ones to learn directly from the Companions were those of the second generation, also called Taba'een (students) who when learning never discriminated among the Companions. Then appeared the ones to learn from second generation were those of the third generation also called Taba Taba'een (students of the students). These first three generations of Islam built the foundation of religious principles for all subsequent generations to learn from. These three generations as per Prophet ﷺ himself are the best in following the teachings of Islam and historically these were the best in teaching and from whom upcoming generations have looked upon for guidance. This is corroborated by the following Prophetic tradition:

Narrated Abdullah, The Prophet ﷺ said, "The best people are those of my generation, and then those who will come after them (the next generation), and then those who will come after them (i.e. the next generation), and then after them, there will come people whose witness will precede their oaths, and whose oaths will precede their witness." (Sahih al-Bukhari 6429) [5]

After the third generation corruption began to appear at a much wider level when it came to teaching of Islam and knowledge dissemination, therefore then the righteous scholars and saints among subsequent generations continued to follow the methodology of the first three generations and disseminated correct teachings. The majority of these people and their scholars are always found to be part of main orthodox school that everyone refers to as Sunni Islam or Sunnis. Just by observing the fact that all famous Imams who followed the earlier generations for the past 14 centuries, whether from the main 4 schools of thought (Hanafi, Sha’afi, Maliki, Hanbali), all the Imams who collected Hadith, all Imams famous for being Quran commentators and majority of Imams of the Sufis belonged to the school of Ahle Sunnah Wa’al Jama’ah (People who follow Prophetic path and main body) or Sunni Islam. This is an undeniable historical fact of Islam. 

Misguided groups and some of their characteristics

One major characteristic of such groups is that their teachings are in clear contradiction to consensus of the past generations and they are almost always a minority among the Muslims therefore its easy to identify them. Many examples of these groups are found in the past as well as in our times.

A good example is found in the fanatics of early Islam during the Caliphate of Ali Ibn Abi Talib (r.a) who are referred to as Khawarij. In their extreme interpretation they were easily identifiable that they were not on the path of the Prophet or Companions. An example of similar group is also the Hashashin (Ismailies) an offshoot of Shias who were fanatics in their expression of Islam and they acted more like cult. An expression of this type is found today in groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS.

Then we have groups who have claimed divinity for Ali Ibn Abi Talib (a.s) and for many Sufi Imams such as Shaikh Abdul Qadir Jilani (r.a). They assign almost divinity to these great persons which Quran and Sunnah does not permit for anyone except Allah ﷻ.

There are also groups that had Imams who claimed prophet hood for themselves an example is the likes of Bahaullah and Mirza Ghulam of Qadiyan. The followers of Bahaullah and Mirza Ghulam claim their leaders were Prophets of Allah ﷻ after Muhammad ﷺ and Islam clearly teaches that there is no Prophet after Muhammad ﷺ but he did warn us against several false prophets that would emerge from within his Ummah.

Then we have those who under the influence of modern Western thought have begun to reinterpret the text to such an extent that they claim there is no need to follow traditional methodology adopted for generations and all of that agreed upon for centuries was misguidance. Their examples are found among those who claim that "hadith is to be rejected and only Quran is sufficient". A good example of this type is also found in the group in Western countries claiming that women can act as Imams for mosques and even lead men in prayers. Additionally they also claim that men and women can pray side by side like men  and no need to have separation. These types of beliefs clearly contradict teachings of Quran and Sunnah and the way of Companions and those who followed them. Some have also adopted a racist stance and interpreted that Islam is a "religion of black people" such as Nation of Islam in USA and they have also deviated from the truth.

To know more about the jama'ah (the main body) from authentic Islamic teachings there's a very good article by Shaikh Ahmed ibn Muhammad: Who are the Ahl as-Sunnah wa'l Jama'ah?
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Last but not least we need to always keep in mind the saying "hate the deed and not the doer". The misguidance that many followers of misguided groups follow may be doing so out of ignorance and not willingly and therefore it could be that many are forgiven by Allah ﷻ who judges everyone through their intentions.


References:
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[1] https://sunnah.com/ibnmajah/36/67 
[2] https://sunnah.com/tirmidhi/40/36
[3] https://sunnah.com/abudawud/42/2
[4] https://sunnah.com/abudawud/37/14 
[5] https://sunnah.com/bukhari/81/18